Predicting outcomes of the acute phase of COVID-19. High sensitive prognostic model, based on the results of the international registry "analysis of chronic non-infectious diseases dynamics after COVID-19 infection in adult patients" (ACTIV).

The aim of this study is to investigate the course of the acute period of COVID-19 and devise a prognostic scale for patients hospitalized. Materials and methods: The ACTIV registry encompassed both male and female patients aged 18 years and above, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 and subsequently hospitalized. Between June 2020 and March 2021, a total of 9364 patients were enrolled across 26 medical centers in seven countries. Data collected during the patients' hospital stay were subjected to multivariate analysis within the R computational environment. A predictive mathematical model, utilizing the "Random Forest" machine learning algorithm, was established to assess the risk of reaching the endpoint (defined as in-hospital death from any cause). This model was constructed using a training subsample (70% of patients), and subsequently tested using a control subsample (30% of patients). Results: Out of the 9364 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, 545 (5.8%) died. Multivariate analysis resulted in the selection of eleven variables for the final model: minimum oxygen saturation, glomerular filtration rate, age, hemoglobin level, lymphocyte percentage, white blood cell count, platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase, glucose, heart rate, and respiratory rate. Receiver operating characteristic analysis yielded an area under the curve of 89.2%, a sensitivity of 86.2%, and a specificity of 76.0%. Utilizing the final model, a predictive equation and nomogram (termed the ACTIV scale) were devised for estimating in-hospital mortality amongst COVID-19 patients. Conclusion: The ACTIV scale provides a valuable tool for practicing clinicians to predict the risk of in-hospital death in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Impact of heart failure on all-cause mortality in COVID-19: findings from the Eurasian International Registry.

AIMS: To study all-cause mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 with or without chronic heart failure (CHF) during hospitalization and at 3 and 6 months of follow-up. METHODS AND RESULTS: The international registry Analysis of Comorbid Disease Dynamics in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection (ACTIV) was conducted at 26 centres in seven countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russian Federation, and Uzbekistan. The primary endpoints were in-hospital all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality at 3 and 6 months of follow-up. Of the 5616 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 917 (16.3%) had CHF. Total in-hospital mortality was 7.6%. In-hospital mortality was higher in patients with CHF than in patients without a history of CHF [17.7% vs. 4.0%, P < 0.001; odds ratio (OR) 4.614, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.633-5.859; P < 0.001]. The risk of in-hospital all-cause mortality correlated significantly with the severity of CHF; specifically, the risk of in-hospital all-cause mortality was greater for patients in New York Heart Association functional classes III and IV (OR 6.124, 95% CI 4.538-8.266; P < 0.001 vs. patients without CHF) than for patients in functional classes I and II (OR 2.446, 95% CI 1.831-3.267, P < 0.001 vs. patients without CHF). The risk of mortality in patients with ischemic CHF was 58% higher than in patients with non-ischaemic CHF [OR 1.58 (95% CI 1.05-2.45), P = 0.030]. In the first 3 months of follow-up, the all-cause mortality rate in patients with CHF was 10.32%, compared with 1.83% in patients without CHF (P < 0.001). At 6 months of follow-up, NYHA classes II-IV was a strong risk factor for all-cause mortality [OR 5.343 (95% CI 2.717-10.508); P < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalized COVID-19 patients with CHF have an increased risk of in-hospital all-cause mortality, which remains high 6 months after discharge.

Optimization of heart rate lowering therapy in hospitalized patients with heart failure: Insights from the Optimize Heart Failure Care Program.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization is an opportunity to optimize heart failure (HF) therapy. As optimal treatment for hospitalized HF patients in sinus rhythm with heart rate≥70bpm is unclear, we investigated the impact of combined beta-blocker (BB) and ivabradine versus BBs alone on short and longer term mortality and rehospitalization. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective analysis was performed on 370 hospitalized HF patients with heart rate≥70bpm (150 BB+ivabradine, 220 BB alone) in the Optimize Heart Failure Care Program in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, from October 2015 to April 2016. RESULTS: At 1month, 3months, 6months and 12months, there were fewer deaths, HF hospitalizations and overall hospitalizations in patients on BB+ivabradine vs BBs alone. At 12months, all-cause mortality or HF hospitalization was significantly lower with BB+ivabradine than BBs (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.45 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.32-0.64, P<0.0001). Significantly greater improvement was seen in quality of life (QOL) from admission to 12months with BB+ivabradine vs BBs alone (P=0.0001). With BB+ivabradine, significantly more patients achieved ≥50% target doses of BBs at 12months than on admission (82.0% vs 66.6%, P=0.0001), but the effect was non-significant with BBs alone. CONCLUSIONS: Heart rate lowering therapy with BB+ivabradine started in hospitalized HF patients (heart rate≥70bpm) is associated with reduced overall mortality and re-hospitalization over the subsequent 12months. A prospective randomized trial is needed to confirm the advantages of this strategy.